Contenders Beware: These Snakes Bite
I will admit that I haven't seen much of the Arizona Diamondbacks playing live this season. Living on the east coast I will occasionally catch a few innings on MLB Network before bed. However, often when I do I seem to come away a bit more impressed.
The Diamondbacks have quietly amassed 88 wins this season while all along being overshadowed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. Coming into play on Thursday they trail Los Angeles in the standings by 8 1/2 games but lead the NL Wild Card race over another NL West rival, the Colorado Rockies, by 5 1/2 games. In fact, their 88-65 record is even better than the defending World Series champion and current NL Central leading Cubs, who are 84-67.
Winning the one game wild card is never a guarantee for the team with the better record since baseball can at times be so unpredictable. However, if they D-Backs can get past either the Rockies or Milwaukee Brewers in that one game playoff, I believe they can upset a contender in the divisional round. In all likelihood that divisional round opponent would be the Los Angeles Dodgers who Arizona is very familiar with. Below I will explore the reasons that I think Arizona could potentially beat the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks have quietly amassed 88 wins this season while all along being overshadowed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. Coming into play on Thursday they trail Los Angeles in the standings by 8 1/2 games but lead the NL Wild Card race over another NL West rival, the Colorado Rockies, by 5 1/2 games. In fact, their 88-65 record is even better than the defending World Series champion and current NL Central leading Cubs, who are 84-67.
Winning the one game wild card is never a guarantee for the team with the better record since baseball can at times be so unpredictable. However, if they D-Backs can get past either the Rockies or Milwaukee Brewers in that one game playoff, I believe they can upset a contender in the divisional round. In all likelihood that divisional round opponent would be the Los Angeles Dodgers who Arizona is very familiar with. Below I will explore the reasons that I think Arizona could potentially beat the Dodgers.
Offense
Upon Further Inspection
Many of the D-Backs offensive numbers as a team don't jump out you right away. In fact, in many key offensive categories like batting average (.253-17th), home runs (204-13th) and on-base percentage (.327-14th) they fall somewhere in the middle of the league. Also, their strikeout percentage is high at 23% which is sixth worst in baseball. So why do I think a team with numbers like that has a chance to upset the Dodgers?
For one, they do score a good amount of runs in spite of their deficiencies at the plate. The Diamondbacks currently rank 8th in baseball and 4th in the National League in runs scored with 755. So even though they lack in some offensive categories they still find ways to put up runs. One way is through their quality base running.
Arizona currently, ranks seventh in MLB and fourth in the NL with 94 steals, which is a fairly impressive number in this era of long ball baseball. However, upon closer inspection, according to Fan Graphs BsR which encompasses all aspects of base running, they are the best in the league with a score of 16.2. To put this in context the next best team is the Washington Nationals with a score of 12.6 and the Minnesota Twins are the only other team with a score above 10. Meanwhile, the worst base running team in the league according to Fan Graphs BsR is the Detroit Tigers with a score of -16.5. Quality base running like this certainly helps make up for some of the D-Backs more pedestrian stats mentioned earlier.
One other interesting stat that I uncovered on Arizona is that they don't hit into many double plays. In fact, they are currently second best in the majors with only 99 GDP. This is important for a team like Arizona who doesn't hit for a high average and strikes out a lot. It means that when they do get runners on base they don't allow pitchers to quickly escape too often by hitting into double plays.
Big Boppers
The thing that makes Arizona a constant run scoring threat is the three big boppers in their line-up. The biggest of all these hitters is their MVP candidate first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt has twice finished runner-up in the NL MVP race (2013&2015). However, it looks like this season he may have his best chance of winning the award now that he has a relevant team to go along with his impressive numbers.
Goldschmidt has put up gaudy power numbers with 35 home runs (11th in MLB), 117 RBI (3rd in MLB), and a .576 slugging percentage (9th in MLB). However, it's not just his power numbers that are impressive. Goldschmidt has very well rounded stats. He's currently batting .305 with a .410 OBP (6th in MLB), and 110 runs scored (4th in MLB). He also can run well for a power hitter with 18 stolen bases. This is an added value that most power hitters, especially first basemen, don't bring to the table.
The next big hitter that the Diamondbacks have is outfielder J.D. Martinez who they acquired from the Detroit Tigers in mid-July. Martinez has been on fire since arriving in the desert and his 27 homers (25 with Arizona) and 61 RBI (54 with Arizona) are second best behind Giancarlo Stanton since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, his slugging percentage has been the best in baseball in that same time frame. Martinez has provided the Arizona lineup a power surge since his arrival and provides good protection behind Goldschmidt.
The last of Arizona's power hitters is third baseman Jake Lamb. I will admit that if he hadn't been on my fantasy team the last two years I might not know who Lamb is. However, Lamb is a nice young player who has provided the D-Backs with plenty of pop from the hot corner. This season Lamb is batting .248 with 28 homers and 102 RBI. Lamb provides good power production a bit further down the lineup. If these three are hot going into the playoffs then Arizona should be able to put up a decent amount of runs.
Pitching
Another way that the Diamondbacks make up for a middle of the pack offense in most categories is their strong pitching staff. The D-Backs currently have the third best team ERA in baseball at 3.63 and feature both a strong rotation and a steady bullpen.
The Rotation
The Diamondbacks feature one of the better rotations in baseball led by ace Zack Greinke. Their starting pitching is the second best in baseball with an ERA of 3.52 and WAR of 19.2. Meanwhile their rotation is third in the league in wins (65), strikeouts (951), and opponents batting average (.235). Most impressive may be home their runs allowed at only 1.02 per 9 innings which is easily the best in the league. If they can get past the wild card round to face the Dodgers they could very likely opt for a three man rotation in a 5 game series. Those three would be Greinke, Robbie Ray and Zack Godley.
Greinke is back to being the ace he has always been with an impressive 17-6 record and 2.87 ERA in 30 starts. Those 17 wins are tied for the major league lead. Greinke again should garner consideration for the NL Cy Young Award. Meanwhile southpaw Robbie Ray is 14-5 with an ERA of 2.95. The last of the trio Zack Godley is only 8-8 but his ERA is only 3.20. All three are impressively in the top 21 in the majors in WHIP; Greinke is fifth at 1.02, Godley is 12th at 1.11, and Ray is 21st at 1.17. Greinke, Ray, and Godley make for a trio that can stifle the best of lineups when they're throwing the ball well. We all know that pitching wins games in the playoffs and the Diamonbacks have a great group of starters.
The Bullpen
The bullpen isn't quite as strong as the rotation numbers-wise but they get the job done with 42 saves and 89 holds. For the most part they hover around the top 10 units in baseball in terms of ERA, WHIP, and blown saves. Not the most impressive unit overall but one that generally gets the job done.
Arizona does have a strong late inning weapon in failed starter turned set-up man, Archie Bradley, who has the best ERA in baseball at 1.17. Bradley has 24 holds in front of closer Fernando Rodney and gives up only .39 home runs per 9 innings. If the starters can get the ball to Bradley and Rodney with a lead then the D-Backs will always have a chance to win.
Why They Have A Chance
If Arizona gets to the division series and faces the Dodgers they should enter the series with a lot of confidence after winning the season series 11-8. That 11-8 record includes sweeping the Dodgers both in LA and at home the last two times they faced off. On top of that the Dodgers have really scuffled through the last three weeks of the season, going 5-15 in their last 20 games; including a losing streak that lasted 11 games. Going into the playoffs playing good baseball is important and the Dodgers haven't been doing that. Conversely, Arizona is 19-7 in their last 26 games which started with a 13 game win streak. They are two teams that have been trending in opposite directions in September. The above mentioned players, along with the Diamondbacks head-to-head success, and the two teams opposite trajectories is why I believe Arizona has a better chance to upset Los Angeles than most people would think.
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