When Power Hitting Isn't Enough

Baseballs have been flying out of major league ballparks at a record clip this season and teams that hit a lot of home runs often seem like a good bet to win a lot of games. However, this isn't always the case. The most glaring example that power hitting isn't always enough to be a contender is the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles came into Sunday leading the league in home runs, yet they are barely staying afloat in a crowded American League Wild Card race. In fact, their playoff hopes are almost all but dead after they've fallen to 5 games back of the second wild card spot with 13 games to play and five teams ahead of them. How can a team that hits for so much power be so unlikely to make the playoffs? The answer can be expressed quite clearly by the old baseball adage "pitching wins ballgames." The Orioles starting pitching is quite simply awful. The other reason is not enough run production when not hitting home runs.

Offensive Prowess?

Lords of the Long Ball

The Orioles entered play Sunday with most home runs in baseball with 225 which puts them just ahead of teams like the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees. Two of those teams, the Astros and Yankees, are likely playoff teams, while the other two are not. The Orioles currently have seven players with 20 or more home runs. This number jumps to eight if you count the home runs that shortstop Tim Beckham hit with Tampa before he was traded to Baltimore. That's eight players in a nine player lineup. 

Underlying Issues

One would think with so many homers as a team and with the power being spread throughout the lineup that Baltimore would be an offensive juggernaut. However, upon closer examination this is far from the case. The power numbers may look great but the overall offensive numbers paint a different picture.

To start the Orioles overall run production is only middle of the pack. They were 13th in the majors with 701 runs scored entering play on Sunday which puts them behind every one of the ten teams that currently hold a playoff spot. The Orioles have a very strong team batting average at .263 good enough for sixth in the league, However, this is all but washed out by the fact that they have the lowest walk percentage in the league at 6.4%. This abysmal walk rate in turn means the Orioles don't get on base at nearly a high enough rate despite the high team batting average. Their team on base percentage is .315 which is only 26th in the majors. 

The low walk rate and on base percentage make it difficult for the Orioles to manufacture runs when they're not hitting the long ball. Another stat that shows the Orioles are overly reliant on the long ball is the fact that they are last in stolen bases with 30; 18 behind the next worst team. Meanwhile, there are four players who have that number of steals or better by themselves around the league. Looking at more advanced statistics the Orioles are ranked 29th in terms of overall base running based on the sabermetric stat BsR. BsR is a useful stat because it takes into account all situations, such as going first to third on a hit, etc. and not just steals. The fact that the O's are a -15.3 just further proves their ineptness on the base paths which costs them valuable runs over the course of a season. It's hard to manufacture runs when you can't run the bases well.  

Another problem is that the Orioles, like many power hitting teams, strike out a high rate. Their 22.5% strike out rate is which is 11th in the league. This isn't awful but when compared to likely playoff teams only the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies strike out at a higher rate. So although a third of the league is worse than the Orioles in this regards, most playoff caliber teams are better than them. 

All of the above-mentioned statistics show us that even though the Orioles are in the top half of the league in scoring they are far too reliant on the long ball to be true contenders for a playoff spot.  

Pitching Problems

Above we examined how despite the fact that they hit a lot of home runs the Orioles are a middle of the pack offensive team when many other stats are factored in. Now we examine something that's even more of an issue for the team: Pitching.

Starting from the Bottom

One thing that it seems a team can never have enough of over the course of a season is starting pitching. Just look at the moves that some of the contenders made at or near the trade deadline. The Dodgers traded for Yu Darvish. The Yankees traded for Sonny Gray. The Astros traded for Justin Verlander. Teams that want to make it to October and then win in October know they need quality arms. This one area where they Orioles have had massive issues all year. In fact, Baltimore has had some of the worst starting pitching in the league.

To start the Orioles have the worst starting pitching ERA in the league at 5.65. Conversely, no likely playoff team has a starting pitching ERA worse than 4.14 (the Cubs) which is a full run and a half difference. This means that the Orioles are often starting games from a disadvantage every time they take the field. As a result of the high amount of runs that their starters give up they have accumulated the sixth most losses in the league with 61. Not even all of the Orioles home runs have been enough to bail out this kind of starting pitching from losing a lot of games.

The chart below shows that only Dylan Bundy has had a decent season with 19 quality starts in 27 starts. some of the other starters numbers are nothing short of ugly.

The Orioles starting pitching has been plagued by many negative factors that influence their high ERA. Probably the most glaring is their high walk rate. Orioles starting pitching walks 3.82 batters per 9 innings which is the third most in baseball. The Orioles also give up a lot of hits as their batting average on balls in play against is the fourth worst in baseball at .313. This combination of high walk rate and opponents average has been deadly for Baltimore starting pitching. This is because once those opposing players get on base, O's starting pitching has been unable to strand them there nearly enough, as their opponents left on base percentage is fourth worst in the league at 69.8%. 

Some other numbers that illustrate just how bad the starting pitching has been for Baltimore. One is the 1.67 home runs per 9 which is fourth worst in the league. The Orioles are also fifth worst in the league in home run to fly ball percentage at 16% which means a lot of the fly balls they give up leave the park. This isn't all that surprising playing in Camden Yards where the ball tends to get out quite often. The Orioles are also in the bottom third in the league in ground ball percentage which means they don't get enough ground balls to induce potential double plays that would erase the high amount of walks and hit they give up. 

The result of all of these stats is that in sabermetric terms the Orioles have the sixth worst starting pitching staff in baseball with a WAR of 5.3. Unsurprisingly, all ten likely playoff teams are in the top half of baseball in starting pitching WAR. The unfortunate part for the Orioles is that the lack of starting pitching has negated one of their strength which is a quality bullpen which has the sixth best bullpen ERA in baseball. 

Drawing Conclusions

The Orioles are living proof that even though the long ball is what draws many people to the game of baseball, hitting home runs is far from the most important facet of the game to a successful team. The proof is in the pudding in Baltimore that without quality pitching, timely hitting, good base running and solid defense that it is difficult to be a true contender. Hitting home runs can only make up for so many faults in a team no matter how many homers a team hits and how many players on the team can hit for power. The old adage "pitching wins ballgames" continue to hold true even today with balls leaving ballparks around the league at a record pace. If the Orioles expect to compete any time soon they need to seriously address their starting pitching in the off season or remain a team with a lot of highlight reel long balls but not nearly enough highlight reel wins.

*All stats are courtesy of Fan Graphs and ESPN and are updated prior to play beginning Sunday 9/17

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