The Good, The Bad & The Ugly: The Curious Case of Masahiro Tanaka

The Yankees are off to a great start to the 2017 season. There's no denying that. They are by most preseason projections exceeding expectations. However, for the all the contributions that the Yankees have gotten from players that maybe weren't expected to produce so much, they also have some key players who haven't performed. Most notably, I'm talking about their ace, Masahiro Tanaka.

The Yankees came in to the season with a lot of question marks in their rotation. Going into spring training many were unsure who would even be the Yankees fourth and fifth starters. (It turns out Luis Severino and Jordan Montgomery were great choices so far.) Even two of the confirmed starters, CC Sabathia and Michel Pineda, came with concerns. Could CC turn back the clock and give the Yankees quality starts? (For the most part he has) Would Pineda finally start to pitch to his potential? (For the most part he has)

The closet thing that the Yankees had to a guarantee in their rotation coming into the season was...Tanaka. He looked sharp in spring training and like the ace  he has been since he put on pinstripes in 2014. However, for all of the good that they have gotten from their 2-5 starters, the Yanks have gotten a considerable amount of bad and some downright ugly from Tanaka so far.

The good starts have been few and far between for Tanaka who is currently 5-6 with a 6.55 ERA. When he's been good, he's been real good. There are two great starts that jump out at you. One is his complete game, two hit shutout of the Red Sox in Boston in late April. The other more recent start came against the Oakland A's when he struck out 13 and gave up only one earned run in 7 1/3 at the stadium. These two starts were vintage Tanaka. His control was pinpoint, his splitter was sharp, and he didn't walk batters.

Unfortunately, for Tanaka and the Yankees this hasn't happened too often. Coming into the season Tanaka hadn't had a start in his MLB career with 7 earned runs. So far he has allowed 7 or more earned runs in three of his twelve starts in 2017. He started the season at Tampa allowing 7 earned in 2 2/3 innings, gave up 8 earned in 1 1/3 against the Astros in mid-May and three starts later gave 7 earned in 5 2/3 at Baltimore. In addition, the Rays tagged Tanaka for six earned in 3 innings right after the Astros hammered him at stadium.

All of the earned runs are of course concerning but the manner in which Tanaka has allowed them may be even more concerning. In his ugly starts Tanaka hasn't allowed many cheap runs. In fact, he has been giving up a lot of long balls. Not many have been of the short variety that Yankee Stadium is notorious for. In fact, most have been hard hit, no doubt home runs. Tanaka has already allowed 17 home runs in 66 innings pitched which averages out to 2.32 HR/9. His previous career high was 24 HR allowed in 154 IP (1.46 HR/9). Clearly, the long ball has been a huge problem for Tanaka.

Tanaka's usual pinpoint control hasn't been there for him most of this season and that has been his biggest issue. He isn't a flame thrower by any means, usually hitting low 90's on the radar gun, so when he misses his spots opposing hitters can make him pay. Besides the increase in home runs, this is evident in his increased walk rate. Tanaka has walked batters at a rate of 2.45 per 9 which is nearly a full walk above his career rate of 1.65 BB/9. The question then becomes what is the cause of this decrease in Tanaka's control?

With the struggles that Tanaka have had so far the first question that come to mind is "Is he healthy?" Tanaka has had elbow issues (partial UCL tear) in the past. There's always the fear that he'll blow it out completely and need the Tommy John surgery which he has been able to avoid thus far. However, Tanaka has insisted that he isn't ailing and there is no drop in velocity that would be a red flag. So if this is the case then one would think the issue is mechanics. If this is the case the Yankees and Tanaka need to right the ship quickly.

The Yankees have gotten off to a great start but if they expect to continue to exceed expectations they need Tanaka to be the ace that he has been in the past. Granted there are many other factors to the Yankees success, such as continued production throughout the lineup, solid starts from their other four starters, and a bullpen that closes out games, to go along with good health. However, for the Yankees to truly compete for the division, and possibly deeper into October they need Tanaka to pitch much better. Being the pitcher that he is the team will give him as many starts as he needs to right the ship if he is truly healthy. However, until he does fans will continue to fear the worst about his elbow. Meanwhile they will be praying that their ace begins to appear again because the Yankees success the rest of this season may depend a lot on Tanaka's personal success.