Severino Continues to Solidify Ace Status
Luis Severino went into 2016 with high expectations after he pitched very well in 11 starts for the Yankees 2015 (5-3, 2.89 ERA). However, last season quickly turned into a nightmare for Severino. He was awful. There's no two ways about it. He was so bad that he got demoted and spent a good portion of the season in the minors. Severino's 2016 season consisted of 22 appearances for the club, 11 of which were starts, and he finished the season with a 3-8 record and 5.83 ERA. Not the numbers expected from such a talented, promising young pitcher.
Fast forward to today and Severino's story couldn't be any different in 2017. This season Severino has emerged as the ace on a staff that badly needed one. With Masahiro Tanaka looking like a shell of himself, the Yanks needed somebody to step up and Severino has done just that.
Severino stifled a powerful Rangers lineup today in Arlington, going 7 innings and allowing only one run on one hit while striking out 10. Even though Severino didn't factor into the decision he continues to give the Yankees a chance to win almost every time he takes the mound. He also continues to overpower batters and has shown no signs of slowing down as the Yanks enter the homestretch of the season.
Severino's numbers this season are among the best in the American League. He's currently 12-6 and his 12 wins rank tied for ninth in the AL. His 211 strikeouts are fourth and he strikes out 10.77 batters per 9 innings. Even more impressive, his 2.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP both rank third behind only Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Even sabermetrics rank Severino highly with the third best WAR (Wins Above Replacement), again only trailing Sale and Kluber, according to FanGraphs. Severino has also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard, as he is only allowing 1.01 HR/9. All of these numbers add up to a sterling season thus far for Severino.
It is highly likely that Severino will garner some Cy Young Award votes (mostly third place) and has a great chance at finishing third in the voting behind Sale and Kluber. This is something that would've been unthinkable just about a year ago.
One thing that has helped in his turnaround has been the development of third quality pitch. Severino has always had the blazing fastball in the upper 90's and a nasty slider but this year he has added a quality change up. The improved change up has allowed Severino to throw his fastball a little less than last year (56% in 2016 vs 51.8% in 2016). This has allowed him to keep batters a bit more off balance and keep hitters off his fastball. Severino sought the advice of Pedro Martinez this off season and seems to have done him a world off good.
Severino has featured better control this year and has lowered his BB/9 from 3.17 in 2016 to 2.39 this season. This has helped him raise his strikeout to walk ration from 2.64 to 4.47 as well; a huge jump. Severino has also been more stingy when teams get men on base. Last year he allowed 36% of opponents base runners to score. This year that number is down to under 24%. All of these improvements have added up to a stellar season.
If Severino can keep this up down the stretch he makes the Yankees extremely dangerous, especially in the AL Wild Card game. This is their likely destination as they are 4 games behind Boston at the time of publication. Severino's dominance is the reason that I'd start him over Tanaka and Sonny Gray in such a game. Throw Severino's youth and lack of playoff experience aside, he's earned the right to start the Yankees first playoff game. I think starting Severino gives the Yankees the best chance to win a wild card game and continue playing October baseball.
As the Yankees build toward becoming a perennial contender with young homegrown stars and a stacked farm system, Severino looks like he can lead the staff for years to come. Quality pitching is essential for a team to compete annually and a shut out ace is almost imperative, especially in the post season. It looks like the Yanks may have just that for years to come in the form of Luis Severino.
Fast forward to today and Severino's story couldn't be any different in 2017. This season Severino has emerged as the ace on a staff that badly needed one. With Masahiro Tanaka looking like a shell of himself, the Yanks needed somebody to step up and Severino has done just that.
Severino stifled a powerful Rangers lineup today in Arlington, going 7 innings and allowing only one run on one hit while striking out 10. Even though Severino didn't factor into the decision he continues to give the Yankees a chance to win almost every time he takes the mound. He also continues to overpower batters and has shown no signs of slowing down as the Yanks enter the homestretch of the season.
Severino's numbers this season are among the best in the American League. He's currently 12-6 and his 12 wins rank tied for ninth in the AL. His 211 strikeouts are fourth and he strikes out 10.77 batters per 9 innings. Even more impressive, his 2.98 ERA and 1.05 WHIP both rank third behind only Chris Sale and Corey Kluber. Even sabermetrics rank Severino highly with the third best WAR (Wins Above Replacement), again only trailing Sale and Kluber, according to FanGraphs. Severino has also done a nice job of keeping the ball in the yard, as he is only allowing 1.01 HR/9. All of these numbers add up to a sterling season thus far for Severino.
It is highly likely that Severino will garner some Cy Young Award votes (mostly third place) and has a great chance at finishing third in the voting behind Sale and Kluber. This is something that would've been unthinkable just about a year ago.
One thing that has helped in his turnaround has been the development of third quality pitch. Severino has always had the blazing fastball in the upper 90's and a nasty slider but this year he has added a quality change up. The improved change up has allowed Severino to throw his fastball a little less than last year (56% in 2016 vs 51.8% in 2016). This has allowed him to keep batters a bit more off balance and keep hitters off his fastball. Severino sought the advice of Pedro Martinez this off season and seems to have done him a world off good.
Severino has featured better control this year and has lowered his BB/9 from 3.17 in 2016 to 2.39 this season. This has helped him raise his strikeout to walk ration from 2.64 to 4.47 as well; a huge jump. Severino has also been more stingy when teams get men on base. Last year he allowed 36% of opponents base runners to score. This year that number is down to under 24%. All of these improvements have added up to a stellar season.
If Severino can keep this up down the stretch he makes the Yankees extremely dangerous, especially in the AL Wild Card game. This is their likely destination as they are 4 games behind Boston at the time of publication. Severino's dominance is the reason that I'd start him over Tanaka and Sonny Gray in such a game. Throw Severino's youth and lack of playoff experience aside, he's earned the right to start the Yankees first playoff game. I think starting Severino gives the Yankees the best chance to win a wild card game and continue playing October baseball.
As the Yankees build toward becoming a perennial contender with young homegrown stars and a stacked farm system, Severino looks like he can lead the staff for years to come. Quality pitching is essential for a team to compete annually and a shut out ace is almost imperative, especially in the post season. It looks like the Yanks may have just that for years to come in the form of Luis Severino.
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