Yankees Have the Pieces to Make Noise in the Playoffs

The Yankees are coming off a very successful weekend after taking three out of four from the division leading Boston Red Sox at the Stadium. They picked up two games and cut the Sox division lead down to 3 1/2 with just about a month to play. It's a shame the Yankees don't play the Sox again down the stretch because if the race stays this close a late season series with the division crown at stake could've been a real treat. However, head-to-head the season series with Boston was a success for the Yankees who took 11 out of 19 games from their rivals.

This weekend was huge for the Yanks who bounced back nicely after being swept earlier in the week by the red hot Cleveland Indians. The Yankees were successful on many levels this weekend and in my opinion proved that if they can find a way into the playoffs either as division champs or more likely a Wild Card, they could potentially do some damage. The Yanks got strong starting pitching, some timely hitting, and good relief efforts from the bullpen. Let's take a look at some of the reasons the Yanks could prove to be a tough out in a postseason series.

Strong Starting Pitching

In a playoff series the Yanks would only need four starting pitchers. Those four starters would be the same four that lined up against the Sox this weekend: Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray, and CC Sabathia. Yankees starters combined for 6 earned runs in 26 innings pitched: Severino (6IP, 0ER), Tanaka ( 7IP, 1ER), Gray (7IP, 4ER), and Sabathia (6IP, 1ER). That's a 2.08 ERA over the course of the series. That kind of starting pitching will always give you a chance to win. 

Severino was dominant last night giving up only one unearned run over six innings while striking out nine. Had the Yanks not blown the game open in the bottom of the sixth then Severino certainly would've gone longer as he only threw 87 pitches. Severino has been a revelation this season and has developed into the Yankees ace. After last night's win Severino is 12-6 with a 3.03 ERA and has struck out 201 batters in just 169.1 innings. Since the All-Star break Severino has given up three or fewer earned runs in nine out of ten starts. He's the kind of pitcher that can be called on to match up against any other team's ace and give you a good chance of winning just like last night against Chris Sale. You need an ace in the playoffs who can do this and the Yanks have one. 

In the postseason, I would think that Masahiro Tanaka would take the ball in game two. Tanaka who had been the Yankees ace the past few seasons got off to an absolutely awful start this season so his overall numbers are not that impressive. However, Tanaka has rebounded nicely post All-Star Break and sports a 4-2 record with a 2.73 ERA in 8 starts. He's been even more dominant his last two starts shutting down Seattle and Boston (13IP, 2ER). If Tanaka continues his second half form he could match up against any number two starter in the American League. 

The Yankees newest starter, Sonny Gray, acquired at the trade deadline from Oakland would likely be their game three starter. Gray was the only Yankees pitcher to take a loss this weekend when the Yankees only scored one run for him. He's only 2-4 in six starts since his arrival in the Bronx but his 3.16 ERA indicates that he has pitched well and he's kept the Yankees in the game in each of those starts. 

CC Sabathia has had a solid bounce back season for the Yanks and his experience makes him a very good option for the Yanks as a fourth starter. I won't go into much detail here but you can check out my last post for more on CC. --> CC Steps Up Against Sox Again

Line Up Depth

The Yankees lineup has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this season but when the bats get hot they can score with anyone in baseball. I think down the stretch the Yankees should be even better at the plate thanks to newfound depth with the return from injury of some big boppers. Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro and Greg Bird have all returned recently and already made an impact. Holliday homered against the Sox on Saturday and Sunday, Castro had a bases clearing double that blew the game open last night, and Bird homered a couple times earlier in the week versus Cleveland. When the Yanks were off to a hot start Castro and Holliday were a big part of it. If those two get going again the Yankees lineup will be very dangerous. 

Other players have been hot recently as well, none more so than Gary Sanchez. Since the beginning of August Sanchez has been the Yankees best hitter, batting .298 with 12 HR and 28 RBI. Another guy who's gotten hot in the last month is Chase Headley who is batting .299 in that time and raised his season average to .280. Another player who has stepped up in the last couple weeks is forgotten man Jacoby Ellsbury. Since August 15th, Ellsbury is batting .333. Continued production from Headley and Ellsbury would be big boost to the lineup when it matters most. 

Aaron Judge who was the darling of baseball for the first three months of the season has been slumping since the All-Star break. However, if he can figure things out and begin to provide a bit of pop again then the Yankees lineup begins to look even more scary. One can only hope that the bomb he hit last night will build up his confidence a bit. The above mentioned players are in addition to other solid contributors Didi Gregorious and Brett Gardner, along with trade deadline acquistiton Todd Frazier. Even with Aaron Hicks returning to the DL yesterday, Joe Girardi still has plenty of options to match up against both right handed and left handed pitching. Let's look at potential lineups below position by position assuming Hicks is back for the postseason.

                                            vs. RHP                                              vs. LHP

                                      C Gary Sanchez                                    C Gary Sanchez

                                     1B Greg Bird                                         1B Chase Headley

                                     2B Starlin Castro                                   2B Starlin Castro

                                     SS Didi Gregorious                               SS Didi Gregorious

                                     3B Chase Headley                                 3B Todd Frazier

                                     RF Aaron Judge                                    RF Aaron Judge

                                     CF Aaron Hicks                                    CF Jacoby Ellsbury

                                     LF Brett Gardner                                   LF Brett Gardner

                                     DH Jacoby Ellsbury                               DH Matt Holliday

As you can see the Yankees lineup depth can make them dangerous both down the stretch and into the postseason. This depth let's Girardi vary his lineups against righties and lefties while also giving him plenty of pinch hitting options late in games. For this reason I think the lineup will provide more production the rest of the way than we've seen for stretches during the regular season. 

A Stocked Bullpen

Perhaps the Yankees biggest asset in a postseason series is their loaded bullpen. Earlier in the summer I lauded Brian Cashman for the trade that brought David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle over from Chicago (see here). With the move the Yankees might have the deepest bullpen in baseball. The bullpen is stocked with lots of hard throwing options for Girardi to "shorten" games even with the failings of Aroldis Chapman this season. The Yankees have the aforementioned Kahnle (3.57 ERA), Chad Green (1.80 ERA) in his breakout season, Adam Warren (2.40 ERA) and lefty Chasen Shreve (3.49 ERA) in middle relief. With this kind of depth in the middle innings the Yankees can go to the bullpen early if a starter struggles. 

In addition to their middle relief depth the Yankees have three potential closers to finish out games: Aroldis Chapman (4.12 ERA, 16 saves), Dellin Betances (2.29 ERA, 10 saves), and David Robertson (2.32 ERA, 14 saves). I don't think we'll see Chapman close the rest of the season unless Robertson and Bentances both fail in the role. However, if he can begin to find his stride he can be dominant in a seventh inning setup role. Then Robertson and Betances can handle the eighth and ninth. There's not a lineup in baseball that would envy that task. The Yankees bullpen depth also gives them an advantage in an extra inning game where they could continue to turn to any of these guys inning after inning. 

The Pieces Fit

Only time will tell where the Yankees' season goes in the last month. Will they catch the Sox and win the division? Will they settle for a Wild Card and have to play the one game playoff? Will they falter and miss the playoffs completely? I think the second scenario is the most likely one with the last being the least likely. However, if Yankees get into the playoffs, I believe that for the aforementioned reasons they have the potential to make some noise. If all the pieces come together like they did this weekend against the Sox then October baseball in the Bronx could be more exciting than it's been in quite a few years.