Zoned Out? Can Syracuse Find a Way Against Duke's 2-3?

Coach K has started using a 2-3 zone similar to Syracuse's to great success this season.

Syracuse has been one of the surprise outfits of this year's NCAA Tournament. The Orange have won three low scoring games on their way to the Sweet 16. This is in spite of them being the last at-large team to make the tournament. As discussed in my previous post, the Orange have ridden Jim Boeheim's staple 2-3 zone to each victory; each time shutting down a team that averaged over 80 points per game. It's a defensive philosophy that Boeheim has followed to the Hall of Fame. However, this time around Syracuse has had to count on the 2-3 even more to overcome their own offensive shortcomings.

In the Sweet 16, the Orange will face an opponent who won't be taken by surprise by Boeheim's zone: Duke. The Blue Devils and their own Hall of Fame coach, Mike Krzyzewski, are very familiar with the Syracuse's vaunted zone. The Blue Devils have faced it annually since the 'Cuse joined the ACC in 2013 and beat the Orange this February, 60-44, in Durham. The 44 points were tied for Syracuse's lowest offensive output of the season; well below their already paltry average of 66.7 points per game.

Condensed game film of the February meeting. See how Duke took apart Syracuse's zone.

The Blue Devils didn't have a great offensive game against the Orange either, as they shot 41.5% and only 11.1% from three, which led to a season low 60 points. That's in contrast to Duke's season average of 84.9 points per game on nearly 50% shooting from the field and just over 38% from three. However, when looking at the condensed game it becomes clear that Duke didn't need the three ball to win this one. They have the perfect antidote for the 2-3: big men who can make plays.

Duke killed Syracuse down low in their first meeting. (Solid circles are made shots)

The best way to attack Syracuse's zone has often been to get the ball around the free throw line and then finding an open man when the zone shifts. Duke often did that to perfection behind freshman big men Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr.  They killed Syracuse with passes from the free throw line down to the low block for easy dunks and layups. If Syracuse can't find a way to slow down Duke's big men then they'll have fits again.

In addition, the Orange will have to improve on their 31.5% shooting from the field and 24% from three point range in that game. The problem for Syracuse, who only shoots 41.5% (31.8 % from 3) as a team on the season, is that it's like looking in mirror when they're on Offense. Duke also employs a long, athletic 2-3 zone. It was a switch made back in early February by Coach K to make up for his team's man-to-man struggles. (Check out this ESPN piece on the switch) Ironically enough it was Boeheim who first encouraged Coach K to employ the zone, while they were coaching Team USA together. Now Boeheim will get a heavy dose of his own medicine.

Boeheim spoke to Dan Patrick about Coach K employing his zone. 

Syracuse's struggles from deep and lack of an inside presence will make it difficult for them to attack the zone. Another way teams look to beat the zone is to break out before the zone can set up. However, Syracuse, who has a thin bench, rarely looks for fast-break opportunities. The Orange would rather slow down the game, to keep their starters legs fresh, and hope that they can stifle the opponents offense enough to win ugly.

Syracuse often relies on guard penetration to get buckets and this will be difficult against Duke's athletic zone. Tyus Battle and Frank Howard will have to be efficient when distributing off the dribble to limit turnovers (Syracuse had 17 in the first meeting). Syracuse relies on those two and freshman Oshae Brissett for the majority of their scoring and will likely need someone else to step up in order to score enough to win this game.

Syracuse may need a similar shooting night from Dolzaj,
 like this one vs TCU to have a chance to beat Duke.

The player that could be key is freshman Marek Dolezaj who has begun to contribute more on offense, of late. If Dolezaj can hit a few mid-range jumpers like we saw against TCU then Duke will won't be able to key on the guards quite as much. This could leave a bit more space in the zone for Battle, Howard, and Brissett to operate.

Syracuse will again have to again hold Duke to around 60 points, if they are to have a chance at upsetting the Blue Devils. They're currently 11 point underdogs (by far the largest spread of any Sweet 16 game) for many of the reasons outlined above. It's likely Duke will take this one. However, with the way this tournament has unfolded there's no way the Orange can be counted out. They're a tight knit group of players, who would love nothing more than to keep proving the doubters wrong. There's no better way to do this than to keep dancing deeper into March. The team that is more effective at employing and attacking the zone will do just that.

What are your thoughts? Can Syracuse keep it's Cinderella run alive?